GLOBAL NEWS
In LH Oct this year, JCI website in the “La Nina forecast continues to strengthen, but Peru coast neutral forecast remains” has already mentioned, the US government meteorological agency, Japan Meteorological Agency and Australia meteorological Bureau, etc., have increased the northern hemisphere winter La Nina forecast. Recently, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has announced that la Nina weather has developed in the Pacific for the second year in a row. At the same time, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China recently issued “a Scientific Plan to Cope with La Nina in this winter and next spring”, which also shows that the world has entered a La Nina state, and a weak to moderate intensity La Nina event is expected to form in winter. As can be seen from the figure below, the water temperature of all sea areas around the world is obviously below the Warning line of La Nina in the recent period, as shown in the figure below:
PERU FISHING INFORMATION
- Due to the high proportion of juvenile fish in local areas (mainly in the central sea area), the local preventive small fishing ban policy “reappeared in the rivers and lakes” recently. Up to now, the Peruvian Ministry of Production has announced three local preventive small-catch policies, as follows:
According to document N°160-2021, the Ministry of Production of Peru has announced a small fishing ban for five days from 13:00 On 19 Nov 2021 to 13:00 on 24 Nov 2021 in the area of 5 to 20 nautical miles from 12°00 ‘to 12°30’ south latitude.
According to document N°161-2021, the Ministry of Production of Peru has announced a minor fishing ban for five days from 13:00 on November 20, 2021 to 13:00 on 25 Nov, 2021 from 5 to 30 nautical miles of latitude 12°30 ‘to 13°00’ south.
According to document N°162-2021, the Peruvian Ministry of Production has announced a 5-day minor fishing ban in the area of 5 to 30 nautical miles from 09°00 ‘to 09°30’ s and 5 to 20 nautical miles from 11°30 ‘to 12°00’ s between 20:00 On 22 Nov 2021 and 20:00 on 27 Nov 2021.
The Peruvian government has decided to suspend fishing in Callao sea area for 15 days from 29 Nov due to excessive juvenile fish. Callao accounted for 24% of the total catch.
So far, Peruvian fishing is showing quite good situation. Even though the Callao sea area will be closed for 15 days, fishing will continue in other areas. So industry insiders predict that it should not affect the final smooth completion of the quota.
RMB CASH MARKET IN CHINA
BRIEF CHINA RMB CASH MARKET:
Cash trend of China fishmeal at Shanghai port has been remaining RMB11,700- 11,800/ton without further going up during the week. The recorded stockpile of China fishmeal at main ports has moved up to 200k tons, and that has certainly eased RMB cash trend while total fishmeal inventories are sufficient enough to go through Q4.
Prior to receiving fishmeal cargoes produced from Peru’s 2nd season, such high-rise fishmeal inventory stockpiled at China ports could gradually slow down below 190k tons before mid of next Jan (the roughly startup of Chinese New year). However, other resources are capable of doing support to keep those inventories at a relatively high range from year of 2020.
FM Comments :
Cash trend of China fishmeal could be keeping firm at the range of RMB11,500- 11,700/ton at Shanghai. Besides high-rise fishmeal inventory during current off- season, strong currency of RMB would more or less reduce the costs of landed products. CFO measures before receiving cargoes produced from 2nd anchovy season, RMB cash trend would hardly go up in basic.
THE PRICE INDICATIONS IN VIETNAM MARKET
VIETNAM MARKET PRICE:
Vietnam local fishmeal of 65/150 @USD1,340/ton;
The fishmeal price indication of origin Oman / India 65% @USD1,400 for Dec shipment-CFR;
The price indication of origin USA feather meal @ USD770/ton-CFR;
The price indication of origin USA Porcine 55% MBM @ USD575/ton-CFR ;
The price indication of origin USA Poultry meal 65% @ USD980/ton-CFR;