The total catch in Peru is now up to just over 900,000 m/t which leaves less than 200,000 m/t to go to reach the quota. There are still about three weeks to go to the end of the quota period so, even with the fishing bans, it looks quite good for getting the full quota or at least very close to full quota. Even with the bans the total daily fishing has been able to reach 10,000 m/t, so 10,000 m/t per day for the remaining days would certainly do the job.
The big concern in Peru these days is the situation in China and the financial upset seen in recent days. No one knows how this all could affect the fishmeal business but it should have some effect. Especially if the Chinese economy continues to weaken and animal feed demand drops. Overall the Chinese feed industry showed production increases in 2015 and the forecasts are for 10% percent growth going forward – so business should not be all that bad. However, there may still be a short term drop in Chinese demand until the economy sorts itself out a little.
There has been little or no report of new sales from Peru and trade reports are saying that business may not pick up until China gets back to buying fishmeal and this is not expected to happen until February.
With the stocks on hand and the lack of new business, exporters are said to be quite flexible in their pricing – so, if anything, prices are expected to move lower in coming weeks. There is just no reason to expect that prices will increase.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN — US DOLLARSPERU “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
